NAHB: Top 12 Accomplishments, Number 8: Immigrant Housing Demand Model

Builder Review Daily is highlighting the top 12 actions taken on behalf of Home Builders so far this Spring.

Accomplishment number 8: Development of a Model that Predicts Housing Demand From New Immigrants (and Other Important Economic Studies)

NAHB has developed a model that takes into account the age of newly arriving immigrants, region of origin and length of stay in the United States. The model then assigns probabilities of becoming a head of household, purchasing a home and moving into single-family or multifamily property based on immigrants' characteristics. An analysis facilitated by this model reveals that new immigrants can conservatively be expected to occupy more than 2 million multifamily units and 1.2 million single-family homes over the next 10 years, with more than 900,000 of these new immigrants becoming home owners.

Findings of this analysis are detailed in the NAHB study "Immigrants and Housing Demand," which is available free of charge from our HousingEconomics.com website and includes estimates of the rates at which immigrants form households, move into multi- or single-family housing units, and choose to buy or rent their residences.

NAHB's model predicts that, upon their arrival to the U.S., more than three quarters of new immigrants will choose multifamily units and other housing arrangements, while only 24% will immediately move into single-family attached or detached units. However, by the time these families have been in the U.S. for 10 years or more, close to 50% of them will have moved into single-family homes. And for European- and Asian-born households, the share of expected single-family dwellers after 10 years is even greater. Read more about what NAHB's model projects in terms of immigrant-based U.S. housing demand over the next decade by downloading a free copy of our latest study from HousingEconomics.com. Contact Natalia Siniavskaia at 800-368-5242 x8441.

Note: NAHB’s economics team constantly produces fresh, useful analysis of the most recent housing-related data that has applications to our members’ businesses, and makes that data available to our members free of charge. This is in addition to the department’s regular production of important indexes that gauge the health of the housing industry – theNAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index on builder confidence, the NAHB/First American Improving Markets Index, theNAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index, the Remodeling Market Index, the Multifamily Market Indices and the 50+ Housing Market Index. The surveys and analysis that NAHB’s economists conduct on a monthly and quarterly basis help our members achieve a better understanding of current market trends and where they are headed, while our media outreach in this regard ensures that accurate information on the housing market is transmitted to potential home buyers and the public at large. NAHB uses this data to conduct extensive media outreach in which we educate reporters about the historical context in which numbers should be viewed, discourage sensationalized accounts and ensure that home builders’ views are represented. NAHB also assists our members in dealing with media inquiries regarding recent releases of both NAHB and government data.