Markets in 146 of the approximately 340 metro areas nationwide returned to or exceeded their last normal levels of a combination of economic and housing activity in the second quarter of 2016, according to the National Association of Home Builders' Leading Markets Index (LMI). This represents a year-over-year net gain of 66 markets.
Greater Greenville Reaches Normal
The Greater Greenville area reached normal levels of economic and construction activity for the first time since March 2008. Greater Greenville fell as low as 77 percent of normal in 2011, and has been slowly improving since then. Greenville now stands at 101 percent.
During the second quarter of 2016, permits in Greater Greenville rose to 74 percent of normal. Housing prices continued to rise and now stands at 133 percent of normal. Jobs are at 97 percent of normal.
"The data bears out the condition in our area that a lack of inventory, created by a lack of production for a sustained period of time, is creating a housing affordability problem," Michael Dey Chief Executive Officer of the Home Builders Association of Greenville, said.
Spartanburg is Normal and Accelerating
Spartanburg reached normal a month before Greenville, and its growth continues to accelerate. At the end of the second quarter, Spartanburg was at 111 percent of normal, but permits have risen to 121 percent. Housing prices in Spartanburg are at a more healthy 116 percent.
"The difference between Greenville and Spartanburg is emblematic of the anti-growth problem in Greenville County," Dey said. "Housing prices prove demand exists, and resistance to development in Greenville County is pushing development to Spartanburg County," he said. "That type of growth pattern is exactly how Sprawl in Atlanta happened."
The Rest of South Carolina
Charleston (117 percent) and Myrtle Beach (110 percent) also have returned to normal. Columbia is nearing normal at 98 percent.
The National Picture
Nationally, all three components of the LMI contributed to the quarter-over-quarter growth in the nationwide score. Permits rose from .46 to .47, prices increased from 1.35 to 1.37, and employment rose from .96 to .97. Over the year, the permits, prices, and employment components expanded by .04, .07, and .02 respectively. Regionally, 79 of the 364 markets, 21 percent, have an LMI Score that is greater than or equal to 1.0 and are considered normal, up from 74 in the second quarter of 2015 and 62 last year.
While most markets do not have an overall LMI score that is greater than or equal to 1.0, a recovery in one or more components has taken place across a number of MSAs. For example, in 26 markets single-family permits have returned to normal. This is unchanged from the second quarter, but 5 more than last year’s total. The number of markets where house prices are considered normal was also unchanged over the quarter at 345, but it is 6 greater than the 339 markets from one year ago. Meanwhile, the number of MSAs where employment has reached or exceeded normal reached 72, up from 64 markets in the second quarter and from 40 markets one year ago.
Of the 364 MSAs included in the LMI, 56 percent saw their score increase over the quarter and 69 percent recorded year-over-year growth. According to the map above, the MSAs with the largest year-over-year increase, those markets where the annual increase in its LMI Score exceeded that of the nation as a whole, were largely located in the West and in the South, and many reside in the former “bubble” states of California, Nevada, Arizona, and Florida. As illustrated by the first map, many of the markets in these states now have an LMI score closer to the middle of the Score distribution, and off the bottom, indicating that the effects of the crisis in these MSAs are disappearing and the recovery in these markets is taking hold.
To read more about the LMI, visit NAHB.org/LMI.
The Home Builders Association of Greenville are your neighbors and community leaders providing education and support for building industry professionals. We create jobs, encourage homeownership, and promote responsible growth throughout the upstate of South Carolina.
Showing posts with label Leading Markets Index. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Leading Markets Index. Show all posts
Thursday, November 17, 2016
Thursday, November 12, 2015
NAHB: Greenville housing market continues to improve
The economic and housing recovery continues at a slow, but steady pace. For the country as a whole, the Leading Markets Index (LMI) rose to .93 in the third quarter of 2015, .01 point higher than its level in 2015, and .04 point higher than its level from one year ago. The index uses single-family housing permits, employment and home prices to measure proximity to a normal economic and housing market. The index is calculated for both the entire country and for 364 local markets, metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). A value of 1.0 means the market (or country) is back to the last level of normality.
Greater Greenville
The Greenville area also continues to improve. In the third quarter the index rose .02 to .94. Permits continue to lag at .61, but housing prices are at 1.25 and jobs are at .95. Spartanburg also is at .95, but permits have risen to a much more healthy .78. Charleston is the only marketing in South Carolina that has returned to normal at 1.07 with permits at .80.
Nationally, all three components of the LMI contributed to the quarter-over-quarter growth in the nationwide score. Permits rose from .46 to .47, prices increased from 1.35 to 1.37, and employment rose from .96 to .97. Over the year, the permits, prices, and employment components expanded by .04, .07, and .02 respectively. Regionally, 79 of the 364 markets, 21%, have an LMI Score that is greater than or equal to 1.0 and are considered normal, up from 74 in the second quarter of 2015 and 62 last year.
While most markets do not have an Overall LMI Score that is greater than or equal to 1.0, a recovery in one or more components has taken place across a number of MSAs. For example, in 26 markets single-family permits have returned to normal. This is unchanged from the second quarter, but 5 more than last year’s total. The number of markets where house prices are considered normal was also unchanged over the quarter at 345, but it is 6 greater than the 339 markets from one year ago. Meanwhile, the number of MSAs where employment has reached or exceeded normal reached 72, up from 64 markets in the second quarter and from 40 markets one year ago.
Of the 364 MSAs included in the LMI, 56% saw their score increase over the quarter and 69% recorded year-over-year growth. According to the map above, the MSAs with the largest year-over-year increase, those markets where the annual increase in its LMI Score exceeded that of the nation as a whole, were largely located in the West and in the South, and many reside in the former “bubble” states of California, Nevada, Arizona, and Florida. As illustrated by the first map, many of the markets in these states now have an LMI score closer to the middle of the Score distribution, and off the bottom, indicating that the effects of the crisis in these MSAs are disappearing and the recovery in these markets is taking hold.
Greater Greenville
The Greenville area also continues to improve. In the third quarter the index rose .02 to .94. Permits continue to lag at .61, but housing prices are at 1.25 and jobs are at .95. Spartanburg also is at .95, but permits have risen to a much more healthy .78. Charleston is the only marketing in South Carolina that has returned to normal at 1.07 with permits at .80.
Nationally, all three components of the LMI contributed to the quarter-over-quarter growth in the nationwide score. Permits rose from .46 to .47, prices increased from 1.35 to 1.37, and employment rose from .96 to .97. Over the year, the permits, prices, and employment components expanded by .04, .07, and .02 respectively. Regionally, 79 of the 364 markets, 21%, have an LMI Score that is greater than or equal to 1.0 and are considered normal, up from 74 in the second quarter of 2015 and 62 last year.
While most markets do not have an Overall LMI Score that is greater than or equal to 1.0, a recovery in one or more components has taken place across a number of MSAs. For example, in 26 markets single-family permits have returned to normal. This is unchanged from the second quarter, but 5 more than last year’s total. The number of markets where house prices are considered normal was also unchanged over the quarter at 345, but it is 6 greater than the 339 markets from one year ago. Meanwhile, the number of MSAs where employment has reached or exceeded normal reached 72, up from 64 markets in the second quarter and from 40 markets one year ago.
Of the 364 MSAs included in the LMI, 56% saw their score increase over the quarter and 69% recorded year-over-year growth. According to the map above, the MSAs with the largest year-over-year increase, those markets where the annual increase in its LMI Score exceeded that of the nation as a whole, were largely located in the West and in the South, and many reside in the former “bubble” states of California, Nevada, Arizona, and Florida. As illustrated by the first map, many of the markets in these states now have an LMI score closer to the middle of the Score distribution, and off the bottom, indicating that the effects of the crisis in these MSAs are disappearing and the recovery in these markets is taking hold.
Wednesday, May 6, 2015
Greater Greenville Remains at 92 Percent of Normal in Index
The National Assocaition of Home Builders released its Leading
Markets Index this week, and the Greater Greenville market remains at 92
percent of normal. LMI measures, and averages, three basic criteria:
Permits, Housing Prices, and Employment. Continuing to hold back our market is building permits, largely a function of the absence of younger home buyers.
According to the LMI for the first quarter of 2015, Greater Greenville breaks down as follows:
The Greater Greenville area is defined as Greenville, Pickens, Laurens, and Anderson counties.
Other South Carolina markets are as follows:
According to the LMI for the first quarter of 2015, Greater Greenville breaks down as follows:
- Building Permits: 60 percent
- Housing Prices: 122 percent
- Employment: 95 percent
- Overall: 92 percent
The Greater Greenville area is defined as Greenville, Pickens, Laurens, and Anderson counties.
Other South Carolina markets are as follows:
- Spartanburg, 88 percent
- Columbia, 88 percent
- Charleston, 103 percent
- Myrtle Beach, 98 percent
- Charlotte, 87 percent
- Augusta, 99 percent
- Florence, 89 percent
- Sumter, 96 percent
- Raleigh, 89 percent
Thursday, February 5, 2015
Greater Greenville reaches 92 percent of normal
The National Assocaition of Home Builders released its Leading Markets Index this week, and the Greater Greenville market is now at 92 percent of normal. LMI measures, and averages, three basic criteria: Permits, Housing Prices, and Employment.
According to the LMI for the fourth quarter of 2014, Greater Greenville breaks down as follows:
The Greater Greenville area is defined as Greenville, Pickens, and Laurens counties.
Other South Carolina markets are as follows:
According to the LMI for the fourth quarter of 2014, Greater Greenville breaks down as follows:
- Building Permits: 60 percent (the highest since 2008)
- Housing Prices: 121 percent
- Employment: 95 percent
- Overall: 92 percent
The Greater Greenville area is defined as Greenville, Pickens, and Laurens counties.
Other South Carolina markets are as follows:
- Spartanburg, 88 percent
- Columbia, 88 percent
- Charleston, 102 percent
- Myrtle Beach, 100 percent
- Charlotte, 85 percent
- Augusta, 98 percent
- Florence, 90 percent
- Sumter, 99 percent
Thursday, November 6, 2014
Housing Markets, Including Greenville, Inch Toward Full Recovery
Markets in 59 of the approximately 350 metro areas nationwide returned to or exceeded their last normal levels of economic and housing activity in the third quarter of 2014, according to the National Association of Home Builders/First American Leading Markets Index (LMI), released today.
This represents a year-over-year net gain of seven markets. The index’s nationwide score moved up slightly from .89 in the second quarter to .90, meaning that based on current permit, price and employment data, the nationwide average is running at 90 percent of normal economic and housing activity. Meanwhile, 66 percent of markets have shown an improvement year-over-year.
The Local Picture
According to the data, Greenville is at 91 percent of normal. Permits continue to be the limiting factor, at just 59 percent of normal. Housing prices are a 119 percent of normal, an indication that supply is not meeting demand and a house-price bubble may be forming. Meanwhile jobs are at 94 percent of normal. Greenville is ranked 121 among the 359 housing markets in the country based on the data in the report.
Two other markets in South Carolina are at or above normal: Charleston, at 100 percent, and Sumter, at 104 percent. Myrtle Beach is near normal at 98 percent. Florence (89 percent), Columbia (87 percent) and Spartanburg (85) percent round out South Carolina's housing markets.
The National Picture
“The markets are recovering at a slow, gradual pace,” said NAHB Chairman Kevin Kelly, a home builder and developer from Wilmington, Del. “Continued job creation, economic growth and increasing consumer confidence should help spur pent-up demand for housing.”
Baton Rouge, La., continues to top the list of major metros on the LMI, with a score of 1.39 – or 39 percent better than its last normal market level. Other major metros leading the list include Austin, Texas; Honolulu; Oklahoma City and Houston. Rounding out the top 10 are Los Angeles; San Jose, Calif.; Salt Lake City; New Orleans and Charleston, S.C. — all of whose LMI scores indicate that their market activity now equals or exceeds previous norms.
“An uptick in the number of single-family permits, which is currently only 44 percent of normal activity, is the key to a full-fledged housing recovery,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “In the 17 metros where permits are at or above normal, the overall index shows that these markets have fully recovered.”
“Nearly half of all the markets on the Leading Markets Index are up since August, which is a good sign that the ongoing housing recovery will keep moving forward in 2015,” said Kurt Pfotenhauer, vice chairman of First American Title Insurance Company, which co-sponsors the LMI report.
Looking at smaller metros, both Midland and Odessa, Texas, boast LMI scores of 2.0 or better, meaning their markets are now at double their strength prior to the recession. Also leading the list of smaller metros are Grand Forks, N.D; Bismarck, N.D.; and Casper, Wyo., respectively.
The LMI shifts the focus from identifying markets that have recently begun to recover, which was the aim of a previous gauge known as the Improving Markets Index, to identifying those areas that are now approaching and exceeding their previous normal levels of economic and housing activity. More than 350 metro areas are scored by taking their average permit, price and employment levels for the past 12 months and dividing each by their annual average over the last period of normal growth. For single-family permits and home prices, 2000-2003 is used as the last normal period, and for employment, 2007 is the base comparison. The three components are then averaged to provide an overall score for each market; a national score is calculated based on national measures of the three metrics. An index value above one indicates that a market has advanced beyond its previous normal level of economic activity. Editor’s Note: In calculating the LMI, NAHB utilizes employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, house price appreciation data from Freddie Mac and single-family housing permits from the U.S. Census Bureau.
The LMI is published quarterly on the fourth working day of the month, unless that day falls on a Friday -- in which case, it is released on the following Monday. For historical information and charts, please go to nahb.org/lmi.
This represents a year-over-year net gain of seven markets. The index’s nationwide score moved up slightly from .89 in the second quarter to .90, meaning that based on current permit, price and employment data, the nationwide average is running at 90 percent of normal economic and housing activity. Meanwhile, 66 percent of markets have shown an improvement year-over-year.
The Local Picture
According to the data, Greenville is at 91 percent of normal. Permits continue to be the limiting factor, at just 59 percent of normal. Housing prices are a 119 percent of normal, an indication that supply is not meeting demand and a house-price bubble may be forming. Meanwhile jobs are at 94 percent of normal. Greenville is ranked 121 among the 359 housing markets in the country based on the data in the report.
Two other markets in South Carolina are at or above normal: Charleston, at 100 percent, and Sumter, at 104 percent. Myrtle Beach is near normal at 98 percent. Florence (89 percent), Columbia (87 percent) and Spartanburg (85) percent round out South Carolina's housing markets.
The National Picture
“The markets are recovering at a slow, gradual pace,” said NAHB Chairman Kevin Kelly, a home builder and developer from Wilmington, Del. “Continued job creation, economic growth and increasing consumer confidence should help spur pent-up demand for housing.”
Baton Rouge, La., continues to top the list of major metros on the LMI, with a score of 1.39 – or 39 percent better than its last normal market level. Other major metros leading the list include Austin, Texas; Honolulu; Oklahoma City and Houston. Rounding out the top 10 are Los Angeles; San Jose, Calif.; Salt Lake City; New Orleans and Charleston, S.C. — all of whose LMI scores indicate that their market activity now equals or exceeds previous norms.
“An uptick in the number of single-family permits, which is currently only 44 percent of normal activity, is the key to a full-fledged housing recovery,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “In the 17 metros where permits are at or above normal, the overall index shows that these markets have fully recovered.”
“Nearly half of all the markets on the Leading Markets Index are up since August, which is a good sign that the ongoing housing recovery will keep moving forward in 2015,” said Kurt Pfotenhauer, vice chairman of First American Title Insurance Company, which co-sponsors the LMI report.
Looking at smaller metros, both Midland and Odessa, Texas, boast LMI scores of 2.0 or better, meaning their markets are now at double their strength prior to the recession. Also leading the list of smaller metros are Grand Forks, N.D; Bismarck, N.D.; and Casper, Wyo., respectively.
The LMI shifts the focus from identifying markets that have recently begun to recover, which was the aim of a previous gauge known as the Improving Markets Index, to identifying those areas that are now approaching and exceeding their previous normal levels of economic and housing activity. More than 350 metro areas are scored by taking their average permit, price and employment levels for the past 12 months and dividing each by their annual average over the last period of normal growth. For single-family permits and home prices, 2000-2003 is used as the last normal period, and for employment, 2007 is the base comparison. The three components are then averaged to provide an overall score for each market; a national score is calculated based on national measures of the three metrics. An index value above one indicates that a market has advanced beyond its previous normal level of economic activity. Editor’s Note: In calculating the LMI, NAHB utilizes employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, house price appreciation data from Freddie Mac and single-family housing permits from the U.S. Census Bureau.
The LMI is published quarterly on the fourth working day of the month, unless that day falls on a Friday -- in which case, it is released on the following Monday. For historical information and charts, please go to nahb.org/lmi.
Monday, August 11, 2014
Housing Recovery Continues at Slow Pace According to Latest Leading Markets Index
Markets in 56 of the approximately 350 metro areas nationwide returned to or exceeded their last normal levels of economic and housing activity, according to the National Association of Home Builders/First American Leading Markets Index (LMI), released today. This represents a year-over-year net gain of seven markets.
The index’s nationwide score moved up slightly to .89, meaning that based on current permit, price and employment data, the nationwide average is running at 89 percent of normal economic and housing activity. Meanwhile, 78 percent of markets have shown an improvement year-over-year.
In The Upstate, Greenville is at 89, up from 86 at the beginning of the year. Continuing to hold back the Greenville market is permits, which remain at 57. House prices are at 117, largely a function of lack of supply caused by sluggish starts. Jobs are at 94 percent. Spartanburg is at 84, down slightly and also being held back by slow starts. Anderson is not longer tracked as a separate market and is included in the Greenville data.
“Things are gradually improving,” said NAHB Chairman Kevin Kelly, a home builder and developer from Wilmington, Del. “As the job market grows, we expect to see a steady release of pent up demand of home buyers.”
Baton Rouge, La., continues to top the list of major metros on the LMI, with a score of 1.39 – or 39 percent better than its last normal market level. Other major metros leading the list include Honolulu; Oklahoma City; Houston and Austin, Texas. Rounding out the top 10 are Los Angeles; San Jose, Calif.; Salt Lake City; Des Moines; and New Orleans.
“With the national tally only reaching 43 percent of normal, single-family housing permits continue to be the lagging component of the index,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “The big bright spot is employment, where the number of metro areas having reached or exceeded their norms grew from 26 to 46 in a year.”
“In the 22 metros where permits are at or above normal, the overall index indicates that these markets have fully recovered,” said Kurt Pfotenhauer, vice chairman of First American Title Insurance Co., which co-sponsors the LMI report. “This finding shows the impact that an uptick in permits can have on the overall health of markets.”
Looking at smaller metros, both Odessa and Midland, Texas, boast LMI scores of 2.0 or better, meaning their markets are now at double their strength prior to the recession. Also leading the list of smaller metros are Bismarck, N.D.; Grand Forks, N.D; and Casper, Wyo., respectively.
The LMI shifts the focus from identifying markets that have recently begun to recover, which was the aim of a previous gauge known as the Improving Markets Index, to identifying those areas that are now approaching and exceeding their previous normal levels of economic and housing activity. More than 350 metro areas are scored by taking their average permit, price and employment levels for the past 12 months and dividing each by their annual average over the last period of normal growth. For single-family permits and home prices, 2000-2003 is used as the last normal period, and for employment, 2007 is the base comparison. The three components are then averaged to provide an overall score for each market; a national score is calculated based on national measures of the three metrics. An index value above one indicates that a market has advanced beyond its previous normal level of economic activity.
Editor’s Note:
In calculating the LMI, NAHB utilizes employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, house price appreciation data from Freddie Mac and single-family housing permits from the U.S. Census Bureau. The LMI is published quarterly on the fourth working day of the month, unless that day falls on a Friday -- in which case, it is released on the following Monday.
For historical information and charts, please go to nahb.org/lmi.
The index’s nationwide score moved up slightly to .89, meaning that based on current permit, price and employment data, the nationwide average is running at 89 percent of normal economic and housing activity. Meanwhile, 78 percent of markets have shown an improvement year-over-year.
In The Upstate, Greenville is at 89, up from 86 at the beginning of the year. Continuing to hold back the Greenville market is permits, which remain at 57. House prices are at 117, largely a function of lack of supply caused by sluggish starts. Jobs are at 94 percent. Spartanburg is at 84, down slightly and also being held back by slow starts. Anderson is not longer tracked as a separate market and is included in the Greenville data.
“Things are gradually improving,” said NAHB Chairman Kevin Kelly, a home builder and developer from Wilmington, Del. “As the job market grows, we expect to see a steady release of pent up demand of home buyers.”
Baton Rouge, La., continues to top the list of major metros on the LMI, with a score of 1.39 – or 39 percent better than its last normal market level. Other major metros leading the list include Honolulu; Oklahoma City; Houston and Austin, Texas. Rounding out the top 10 are Los Angeles; San Jose, Calif.; Salt Lake City; Des Moines; and New Orleans.
“With the national tally only reaching 43 percent of normal, single-family housing permits continue to be the lagging component of the index,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “The big bright spot is employment, where the number of metro areas having reached or exceeded their norms grew from 26 to 46 in a year.”
“In the 22 metros where permits are at or above normal, the overall index indicates that these markets have fully recovered,” said Kurt Pfotenhauer, vice chairman of First American Title Insurance Co., which co-sponsors the LMI report. “This finding shows the impact that an uptick in permits can have on the overall health of markets.”
Looking at smaller metros, both Odessa and Midland, Texas, boast LMI scores of 2.0 or better, meaning their markets are now at double their strength prior to the recession. Also leading the list of smaller metros are Bismarck, N.D.; Grand Forks, N.D; and Casper, Wyo., respectively.
The LMI shifts the focus from identifying markets that have recently begun to recover, which was the aim of a previous gauge known as the Improving Markets Index, to identifying those areas that are now approaching and exceeding their previous normal levels of economic and housing activity. More than 350 metro areas are scored by taking their average permit, price and employment levels for the past 12 months and dividing each by their annual average over the last period of normal growth. For single-family permits and home prices, 2000-2003 is used as the last normal period, and for employment, 2007 is the base comparison. The three components are then averaged to provide an overall score for each market; a national score is calculated based on national measures of the three metrics. An index value above one indicates that a market has advanced beyond its previous normal level of economic activity.
Editor’s Note:
In calculating the LMI, NAHB utilizes employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, house price appreciation data from Freddie Mac and single-family housing permits from the U.S. Census Bureau. The LMI is published quarterly on the fourth working day of the month, unless that day falls on a Friday -- in which case, it is released on the following Monday.
For historical information and charts, please go to nahb.org/lmi.
Thursday, May 8, 2014
Economic Index Shows Metro Markets Continuing on Path to Normalcy
Greenville Holds Steady at 88 Percent of Normal, Spartanburg is at 85 percent
Of the 351 metro markets measured, 300 have seen year-over-year economic gains, according to the National Association of Home Builders/First American Leading Markets Index (LMI), released today. The index shows that 59 metros have fully returned to or even exceeded their last normal levels of economic and housing activity.
The nationwide economic score rose slightly to .88 from a revised April reading of .87. This means that based on current permit, price and employment data, the nationwide average is running at 88 percent of normal economic and housing activity. The index showed an overall reading of .82 a year ago.
In Greenville, permits are at 54 percent of normal, jobs are at 93 percent of normal, and housing prices are at 116 percent of normal. "This data indicates that Greenville, like many markets in the country, has an insufficient supply of new housing to meet demand," Mike Freeman, GMB, President of the Home Builders Association of Greenville, said. Greenville was at its lowest, in relation to normal, in the fourth quarter of 2011 at 78 percent. Greenville peaked at 111 percent of normal in the third and fourth quarter of 2006.
Spartanburg, which is a separate market in the study, is at 85 percent of normal. Permits in Spartanburg are at 54 percent, jobs are at 96 percent, and housing prices are at 105 percent. Spartanburg peaked higher than Greenville, at 115 percent of normal, also in 2006. Spartanburg also dropped further than Greenville, to 73 percent of normal, where it remained for most of 2011. Spartanburg has been a "most improved" market, rising rapidly over the last year.
“We have always said this recovery would be a slow but steady one, and I think this index continues to prove this,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “The year started a bit slower than anyone could have anticipated but we still expect housing to play a greater role in aiding the overall economic recovery this year. The job market continues to mend and that should spur a steady release of pent up demand among home buyers.”
Keeping its top position of major metros on the LMI was Baton Rouge, La. with a score of 1.41 – or 41 percent better than its last normal market level. Other major metros whose LMI scores indicate that their market activity now exceeds previous norms include Honolulu, Oklahoma City, Austin and Houston, Texas, as well as Los Angeles and San Jose, Calif. and Harrisburg, Pa.
“Our builder members tell us they are starting to see more optimism in the field,” said NAHB Chairman Kevin Kelly, a home builder and developer from Wilmington, Del. “Mortgage rates are low, home prices are affordable and with the harsh winter behind us our latest surveys show builders are feeling more bullish about future sales conditions.”
“We keep waiting for the economy to get into a higher gear,” said Kurt Pfotenhauer, vice chairman of First American Title Insurance Co., which co-sponsors the LMI report. “This report, along with other recent economic news, may mean we are finally there.” Smaller metros experiencing an energy boom continue to lead the recovery. Odessa and Midland, Texas boast LMI scores of 2.0 or better, with their markets now at double their strength prior to the recession. Also at the top of the list of smaller metros are Bismarck, N.D.; Casper, Wyo.; and Grand Forks, N.D., respectively.
The LMI shifts the focus from identifying markets that have recently begun to recover, which was the aim of a previous gauge known as the Improving Markets Index, to identifying those areas that are now approaching and exceeding their previous normal levels of economic and housing activity. More than 350 metro areas are scored by taking their average permit, price and employment levels for the past 12 months and dividing each by their annual average over the last period of normal growth. For single-family permits and home prices, 2000-2003 is used as the last normal period, and for employment, 2007 is the base comparison. The three components are then averaged to provide an overall score for each market; a national score is calculated based on national measures of the three metrics. An index value above one indicates that a market has advanced beyond its previous normal level of economic activity.
Monday, February 10, 2014
Leading Markets Index Edges Higher in February as More Markets Recover
In the Upstate, Greenville ranks 150 among the nation's housing markets, down from 145 in December. It's overall score is .87, or 87 percent of normal and equal to the national average. Holding our market back is permits, which are 55 percent recovered, down slightly from January. However, prices are 115 percent of normal, an indication that demand is now exceeding supply. Employment remains at 92 percent of normal.
Spartanburg is ranked 191 with a score of .84. Permits are 54 percent recovered, and housing prices are at 104 percent of normal and rising quickly. Employment is at 93 percent of normal.
Anderson is not ranked because housing price data is not currently available. However, permits in Anderson are at 42 percent of normal and employment is at 91 percent of normal.
Click here to view data on all 350 housing markets.
“Housing markets across the nation are continuing their slow and steady climb back to normal levels,” said NAHB Chairman Rick Judson, a home builder from Charlotte, N.C. “As employment and consumer confidence slowly improves, this is spurring pent-up demand among potential buyers.”
“Firming home prices are hastening the return of normal economic and housing activity in an increasing number of markets,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “The healthiest markets continue to be centered in smaller metros that boast strong local economies, particularly in the oil and gas producing states of Texas, North Dakota, Louisiana and Wyoming.”
“We are pleased about the continued market trends, highlighted by the fact that eighty-five percent of all metropolitan areas have shown signs of improvement over the past year,” said Kurt Pfotenhauer, vice chairman of First American Title Insurance Co., which co-sponsors the LMI report.
Baton Rouge, La., tops the list of major metros on the LMI, with a score of 1.41 – or 41 percent better than its last normal market level. Other major metros at the top of the list include Honolulu, Oklahoma City, Austin and Houston, Texas, as well as Harrisburg, Pa. and Pittsburgh – all of whose LMI scores indicate that their market activity now exceeds previous norms.
Looking at smaller metros, both Odessa and Midland, Texas, boast LMI scores of 2.0 or better, meaning that their markets are now at double their strength prior to the recession. Also at the top of the list of smaller metros are Bismarck, N.D.; Casper, Wyo.; and Grand Forks, N.D., respectively.
The LMI shifts the focus from identifying markets that have recently begun to recover, which was the aim of a previous gauge known as the Improving Markets Index, to identifying those areas that are now approaching and exceeding their previous normal levels of economic and housing activity. More than 350 metro areas are scored by taking their average permit, price and employment levels for the past 12 months and dividing each by their annual average over the last period of normal growth. For single-family permits and home prices, 2000-2003 is used as the last normal period, and for employment, 2007 is the base comparison. The three components are then averaged to provide an overall score for each market; a national score is calculated based on national measures of the three metrics. An index value above one indicates that a market has advanced beyond its previous normal level of economic activity.
Editor’s Note: In calculating the LMI, NAHB utilizes employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, house price appreciation data from Freddie Mac and single-family housing permits from the U.S. Census Bureau. The LMI is published on the fourth working day of each month, unless that day falls on a Friday -- in which case, it is released on the following Monday.
Tuesday, January 7, 2014
Housing Markets Continue to Show Gradual Improvement
Markets in 56 out of the approximately 350 metro areas nationwide returned to or exceeded their last normal levels of economic and housing activity, according to the National Association of Home Builders/First American Leading Markets Index (LMI), released today. This represents a net gain of two from the previous month. The index’s nationwide score of .86 indicates that, based on current permits, prices and employment data, the nationwide average is running at 86 percent of normal economic and housing activity.
“More markets are slowly returning to normal levels and we expect this upward trend to continue as an improving economy and pent-up demand brings more home buyers back into the marketplace,” said NAHB Chairman Rick Judson, a home builder from Charlotte, N.C. “Policymakers must be careful to avoid actions that would harm consumer confidence and impede the ongoing recovery.”
“Forty-five percent of metro areas are recovering at a faster pace than the nation as a whole, with smaller markets leading the way,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “Of the 56 markets that are at or above normal levels, 48 of them have populations that are less than 500,000, and many of these local metros are fueled by a strong energy sector, which is producing solid job and economic growth.”
In the Upstate, Greenville ranks 145 among the nation's housing markets, up from 150 in December. It's overall score is .87, or 87 percent of normal and better than the national average. Holding our market back is permits, which are 56 percent recovered. However, prices are 114 percent of normal, an indication that demand is now exceeding supply. Employment is at 92 percent of normal.
Spartanburg is ranked 186 with a score of .84. Permits also are 55 percent recovered, and housing prices have just exceeded normal. Employment is at 93 percent of normal. Spartanburg is among of the fastest-recovering markets in the nation.
Anderson is not ranked because housing price data is not currently available. However, permits in Anderson are at 43 percent of normal and employment is at 91 percent of normal.
Click here to view data on all 350 housing markets.
“More than 35 percent of all the markets on this month’s LMI are operating at a capacity of 90 percent or better of previous norms, which is a good sign that the housing recovery will continue to pick up steam in 2014,” said Kurt Pfotenhauer, vice chairman of First American Title Insurance Co., which co-sponsors the LMI report. Baton Rouge, La., tops the list of major metros on the LMI, with a score of 1.42 – or 42 percent better than its last normal market level. Other major metros at the top of the list include Honolulu, Oklahoma City, Austin and Houston, Texas, as well as Harrisburg, Pa. and Pittsburgh – all of whose LMI scores indicate that their market activity now exceeds previous norms.
Looking at smaller metros, both Odessa and Midland, Texas, boast LMI scores of 2.0 or better, meaning that their markets are now at double their strength prior to the recession. Also at the top of the list of smaller metros are Casper, Wyo.; Bismarck, N.D.; and Grand Forks, N.D., respectively.
The LMI shifts the focus from identifying markets that have recently begun to recover, which was the aim of a previous gauge known as the Improving Markets Index, to identifying those areas that are now approaching and exceeding their previous normal levels of economic and housing activity. More than 350 metro areas are scored by taking their average permit, price and employment levels for the past 12 months and dividing each by their annual average over the last period of normal growth. For single-family permits and home prices, 2000-2003 is used as the last normal period, and for employment, 2007 is the base comparison. The three components are then averaged to provide an overall score for each market; a national score is calculated based on national measures of the three metrics. An index value above one indicates that a market has advanced beyond its previous normal level of economic activity.
Editor’s Note: In calculating the LMI, NAHB utilizes employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, house price appreciation data from Freddie Mac and single-family housing permits from the U.S. Census Bureau. The LMI is published on the fourth working day of each month, unless that day falls on a Friday -- in which case, it is released on the following Monday.
Tuesday, December 10, 2013
Housing Markets Continue Slow Climb Back to Normal
Markets in 54 out of the approximately 350 metro areas nationwide returned to or exceeded their last normal levels of economic and housing activity, according to the National Association of Home Builders/First American Leading Markets Index (LMI), released today. The index’s nationwide score of .86 indicates that, based on current permits, prices and employment data, the nationwide market is running at 86 percent of normal economic and housing activity.
In the Upstate, Greenville ranks 150 among the nation's housing markets. It's overall score is .87, or 87 percent of normal and better than the national average. Holding our market back is permits, which are 55 percent recovered. However, prices are 114 percent of normal, an indication that demand is now exceeding supply. Employment is at 92 percent of normal.
Spartanburg is ranked 181 with a score of .84. Permits also are 55 percent recovered, and housing prices have just exceeded normal. Employment is at 93 percent of normal.
Anderson is not ranked because housing price data is not currently available. However, permits in Anderson are at 42 percent of normal and employment is at 91 percent of normal.
Click here to view data on all 350 housing markets.
The LMI figures for November showed that 55 housing markets were operating at or above their last normal levels and the nationwide market was operating at 85 percent of normal growth.
LMI data for the two months were released simultaneously because of the delay in collecting data during the partial government shutdown in October.
“This index shows that most housing markets across the nation are continuing a slow, gradual climb back to normal levels,” said Chairman Rick Judson, a home builder from Charlotte, N.C. “Policymakers must guard against actions that could impede or even reverse the modest gains of the past year.”
Noting that smaller metros accounted for most of the 54 markets on the current LMI that are at or above normal levels, Chief Economist David Crowe said that “smaller markets are leading the way, particularly where energy is the primary economic driver. Nearly half of the markets in the top 54 are in the energy states of Texas, Louisiana, North Dakota, Wyoming and Montana.”
“The fact that more than 125 markets on this month’s LMI are showing activity levels of at least 90 percent of previous norms bodes well for a continuing housing recovery in 2014,” said Kurt Pfotenhauer, vice chairman of First American Title Insurance Co., which co-sponsors the LMI report.
Baton Rouge, La., tops the list of major metros on the LMI, with a score of 1.42 – or 42 percent better than its last normal market level. Other major metros at the top of the list include Honolulu, Oklahoma City, Austin and Houston, Texas, as well as Pittsburgh – all of whose LMI scores indicate that their market activity now exceeds previous norms.
Looking at smaller metros, both Odessa and Midland, Texas, boast LMI scores of 2.0 or better, meaning that their markets are now at double their strength prior to the recession. Also at the top of the list of smaller metros are Casper, Wyo.; Bismarck, N.D.; and Grand Forks, N.D., respectively.
The LMI shifts the focus from identifying markets that have recently begun to recover, which was the aim of a previous gauge known as the Improving Markets Index, to identifying those areas that are now approaching and exceeding their previous normal levels of economic and housing activity. More than 350 metro areas are scored by taking their average permit, price and employment levels for the past 12 months and dividing each by their annual average over the last period of normal growth. For single-family permits and home prices, 2000-2003 is used as the last normal period, and for employment, 2007 is the base comparison. The three components are then averaged to provide an overall score for each market; a national score is calculated based on national measures of the three metrics. An index value above one indicates that a market has advanced beyond its previous normal level of economic activity.
Editor’s Note: In calculating the LMI, employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, house price appreciation data from Freddie Mac and single-family housing permits from the U.S. Census Bureau were used. The LMI is published on the fourth working day of each month, unless that day falls on a Friday -- in which case, it is released on the following Monday.
For historical information and charts, please go to nahb.org/lmi.
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