Sales of new single-family homes increased 4.4 percent in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 377,000 units, according to figures released today by HUD and the U.S. Census Bureau. It was the highest monthly total since April 2010 when the federal home buyer tax credit expired.
“New-home sales are gradually picking up momentum as the economy improves,” said Barry Rutenberg, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Gainesville, Fla. “Prospective home buyers who have been sitting on the fence for years are moving back into the market due to continuing low mortgage interest rates, attractive pricing and the improving economy,” he said.
“This increase is consistent with NAHB’s member surveys, which show increasing confidence in the market,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “We’re projecting a total of about 365,000 new-home sales in 2012, an increase of almost 20 percent over the previous year. The year ahead will see a similar gain as more people who have been sitting on the sidelines decide that it is time to purchase a new home.”
Crowe cautioned, however, that failure to address the “fiscal cliff” could set the housing market back. “Continued uncertainty about the fiscal cliff has the potential to affect new home sales and other aspects of the housing market,” he said. “Some people will definitely hold off on making major financial decisions until the situation is resolved.”
Regionally, new-home sales numbers were mixed in November. Rebounding from declines the previous month, both the South and the Northeast showed improvement, with respective increases of 21.1 percent and 12.5 percent. New-home sales in the Midwest dropped by 12.5 percent, and the West posted a decline of 17.8 percent.
The inventory of new homes for sale increased slightly to 149,000 units in November, which is a 4.7-month supply at the current sales pace.
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Thursday, December 27, 2012
Housing Remains on Growth Track for 2013; Find Out More at the Annual Upstate Housing Market Forecast
Upward trends in recent months among a number of housing indicators point to a slow and steady growth in the nation’s housing market in 2013, but several challenges remain, according to the latest economic and housing forecast by David Crowe, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).
“Consistent, positive reports on housing starts, permits, prices, new-home sales and builder confidence in recent months provide further confirmation that a gradual but steady housing recovery is underway across much of the nation,” said Crowe. “However, stubbornly tight lending standards for home buyers and builders, inaccurate appraisals and proposals by policymakers to tamper with the mortgage interest deduction could dampen future housing demand.”
Upstate Housing Market Forecast is the Place to get the Latest Information about the Local Housing Economy
NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe and Dale Aiken of the Market Edge are featured speakers at the Upstate Housing Market Forecast on January 30. Make plans now to attend and plan your business strategy using the latest economic data for 2013. Click here to register.
Stating there is no consistent national trend, Crowe noted the housing recovery is local but spreading.
“We are transitioning from a very low demand level, where most people hold themselves out of the marketplace, to a case where supply will start being the problem,” he said. “As we begin to build more homes to address that supply, the new home stock will be a much more important element of the recovery.”
Setting the 2000-2002 period as a baseline benchmark for normal housing activity, Crowe said that owner-occupied remodeling has returned to previously normal levels.
“Multifamily production is also well on its way, back to 69 percent of normal,” he said. “It’s the single-family market that has the farthest to go, standing at only 40 percent of what is considered a typical market.”
Meanwhile, the number of improving housing markets across the nation continues to show considerable advancement. When the NAHB/First American Improving Markets Index (IMI) was launched in September of 2011, only 12 metropolitan areas out of 360 were on the list. As of December 2012, the list stands at more than 200 metro areas. The index is based on a six-month upswing in housing permits, employment and house prices.
“One reason we have seen such a significant jump in the IMI is because house prices are beginning to recover,” said Crowe. “House prices bottomed out early in 2011 and since early 2012 we’ve seen a 6 percent increase on a national basis.”
Another factor spurring the recovery is that household formations are on the rise. In the early part of the decade, the nation was generating 1.4 million new households each year. This collapsed to 500,000 annually during the housing downturn and currently new households are being formed at close to a 900,000 clip per annum.
“We’re not up to normal, but this is adding to demand for housing,” Crowe said.
As new households form at a growing rate, so too does builder confidence. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, which measures builder confidence in the single-family housing market, has posted gains for eight consecutive months and now stands at a level of 47. This is very close to the critical midpoint of 50, where equal numbers of builders view the market as good or bad. The HMI has not been above 50 since April of 2006.
Single-family home starts are projected to climb to 534,000 units this year, up 23 percent from 2011. NAHB is forecasting that single-family new-home production will post a healthy 21 percent gain in 2013 to 647,000 units. Starts will continue their upward climb in 2014, posting a further 29 percent rise to 837,000 units.
Multifamily production is expected to rise 31 percent in 2012, reaching the 233,000 level, and posting a solid 16 percent gain in 2013 to 270,000 units. Multifamily starts are anticipated to rise an additional 9 percent in 2014 to 294,000 units.
Meanwhile, new single-family home sales are expected to rise from 307,000 last year to 367,000 this year, a 20 percent rise. Sales are anticipated to climb to 447,000 next year, up 22 percent from 2012 and jump to 607,000 in 2014, a 36 percent increase over 2013 levels.
“Consistent, positive reports on housing starts, permits, prices, new-home sales and builder confidence in recent months provide further confirmation that a gradual but steady housing recovery is underway across much of the nation,” said Crowe. “However, stubbornly tight lending standards for home buyers and builders, inaccurate appraisals and proposals by policymakers to tamper with the mortgage interest deduction could dampen future housing demand.”
Upstate Housing Market Forecast is the Place to get the Latest Information about the Local Housing Economy
NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe and Dale Aiken of the Market Edge are featured speakers at the Upstate Housing Market Forecast on January 30. Make plans now to attend and plan your business strategy using the latest economic data for 2013. Click here to register.
Stating there is no consistent national trend, Crowe noted the housing recovery is local but spreading.
“We are transitioning from a very low demand level, where most people hold themselves out of the marketplace, to a case where supply will start being the problem,” he said. “As we begin to build more homes to address that supply, the new home stock will be a much more important element of the recovery.”
Setting the 2000-2002 period as a baseline benchmark for normal housing activity, Crowe said that owner-occupied remodeling has returned to previously normal levels.
“Multifamily production is also well on its way, back to 69 percent of normal,” he said. “It’s the single-family market that has the farthest to go, standing at only 40 percent of what is considered a typical market.”
Meanwhile, the number of improving housing markets across the nation continues to show considerable advancement. When the NAHB/First American Improving Markets Index (IMI) was launched in September of 2011, only 12 metropolitan areas out of 360 were on the list. As of December 2012, the list stands at more than 200 metro areas. The index is based on a six-month upswing in housing permits, employment and house prices.
“One reason we have seen such a significant jump in the IMI is because house prices are beginning to recover,” said Crowe. “House prices bottomed out early in 2011 and since early 2012 we’ve seen a 6 percent increase on a national basis.”
Another factor spurring the recovery is that household formations are on the rise. In the early part of the decade, the nation was generating 1.4 million new households each year. This collapsed to 500,000 annually during the housing downturn and currently new households are being formed at close to a 900,000 clip per annum.
“We’re not up to normal, but this is adding to demand for housing,” Crowe said.
As new households form at a growing rate, so too does builder confidence. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, which measures builder confidence in the single-family housing market, has posted gains for eight consecutive months and now stands at a level of 47. This is very close to the critical midpoint of 50, where equal numbers of builders view the market as good or bad. The HMI has not been above 50 since April of 2006.
Single-family home starts are projected to climb to 534,000 units this year, up 23 percent from 2011. NAHB is forecasting that single-family new-home production will post a healthy 21 percent gain in 2013 to 647,000 units. Starts will continue their upward climb in 2014, posting a further 29 percent rise to 837,000 units.
Multifamily production is expected to rise 31 percent in 2012, reaching the 233,000 level, and posting a solid 16 percent gain in 2013 to 270,000 units. Multifamily starts are anticipated to rise an additional 9 percent in 2014 to 294,000 units.
Meanwhile, new single-family home sales are expected to rise from 307,000 last year to 367,000 this year, a 20 percent rise. Sales are anticipated to climb to 447,000 next year, up 22 percent from 2012 and jump to 607,000 in 2014, a 36 percent increase over 2013 levels.
FHFA: Adjustable Rate Mortgage Index drops to 3.36
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) today reported that the National Average Contract Mortgage Rate for the Purchase of Previously Occupied Homes by Combined Lenders, used as an index in some adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) contracts, was 3.36 percent based on loans closed in November. There was a decrease of 0.08 from the previous month. With data for February 2012, FHFA began calculating interest rates using un-weighted survey data. The complete contract rate series can be found at http://www.fhfa.gov/Default.aspx?Page=251.
The average interest rate on conventional, 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage loans of $417,000 or less decreased 4 basis points to 3.54 in November. These rates are calculated from the FHFA’s Monthly Interest Rate Survey of purchase-money mortgages (see technical note). These results reflect loans closed during the November 26 - 30 period. Typically, the interest rate is determined 30 to 45 days before the loan is closed. Thus, the reported rates depict market conditions prevailing in mid- to late-October.
The contract rate on the composite of all mortgage loans (fixed- and adjustable-rate) was 3.36 percent in November, down 8 basis points from 3.44 percent in October. The effective interest rate, which reflects the amortization of initial fees and charges, was 3.49 percent in November, down 8 basis points from 3.57 percent in October. This report contains no data on adjustable-rate mortgages due to insufficient sample size.
Initial fees and charges were 1.08 percent of the loan balance in November, up 3 basis points from October. Sixteen percent of the purchase-money mortgage loans originated in November were “no-point” mortgages, down from 21 percent from the share in October. The average term was 27.4 years in November, down 0.1 years from October. The average loan-to-price ratio in November was 75.7 percent, down 0.1 percent from 75.8 percent in October. The average loan amount was $272,300 in November up $14,900 from $257,400 in October.
The average interest rate on conventional, 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage loans of $417,000 or less decreased 4 basis points to 3.54 in November. These rates are calculated from the FHFA’s Monthly Interest Rate Survey of purchase-money mortgages (see technical note). These results reflect loans closed during the November 26 - 30 period. Typically, the interest rate is determined 30 to 45 days before the loan is closed. Thus, the reported rates depict market conditions prevailing in mid- to late-October.
The contract rate on the composite of all mortgage loans (fixed- and adjustable-rate) was 3.36 percent in November, down 8 basis points from 3.44 percent in October. The effective interest rate, which reflects the amortization of initial fees and charges, was 3.49 percent in November, down 8 basis points from 3.57 percent in October. This report contains no data on adjustable-rate mortgages due to insufficient sample size.
Initial fees and charges were 1.08 percent of the loan balance in November, up 3 basis points from October. Sixteen percent of the purchase-money mortgage loans originated in November were “no-point” mortgages, down from 21 percent from the share in October. The average term was 27.4 years in November, down 0.1 years from October. The average loan-to-price ratio in November was 75.7 percent, down 0.1 percent from 75.8 percent in October. The average loan amount was $272,300 in November up $14,900 from $257,400 in October.
Wednesday, December 26, 2012
FHFA House Price Index Up 0.5 Percent in October
U.S. house prices rose 0.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from September to October, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s monthly House Price Index (HPI). The previously reported 0.2 percent increase in September was revised downward to a 0.0 percent change. For the 12 months ending in October, U.S. prices rose 5.6 percent. The U.S. index is 15.7 percent below its April 2007 peak and is roughly the same as the July 2004 index level.
For the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly price changes from September to October ranged from -1.3 percent in the Middle Atlantic division to +2.0 percent in the Pacific division while the 12-month changes ranged from -0.1 percent in the New England division to +13.1 percent in the Mountain division.
FHFA uses the purchase prices of houses with mortgages owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac to calculate the monthly index. Monthly index values and appreciation rate estimates for recent periods are provided in the table and graphs on the following pages. Click here for complete historical data.
For the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly price changes from September to October ranged from -1.3 percent in the Middle Atlantic division to +2.0 percent in the Pacific division while the 12-month changes ranged from -0.1 percent in the New England division to +13.1 percent in the Mountain division.
FHFA uses the purchase prices of houses with mortgages owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac to calculate the monthly index. Monthly index values and appreciation rate estimates for recent periods are provided in the table and graphs on the following pages. Click here for complete historical data.
Builder Confidence Continues Improving in December
Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes rose for an eighth consecutive month in December to a level of 47 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today. This marked a two-point gain from a slightly revised November reading, and the highest level the index has attained since April of 2006.
“Builders across the country are reporting some of the best sales conditions they’ve seen in more than five years, with more serious buyers coming forward and a shrinking number of vacant and foreclosed properties on the market,” observed NAHB Chairman Barry Rutenberg, a home builder from Gainesville, Fla. “However, one thing that is still holding back potential home sales is the difficulty that many families are encountering in getting qualified for a mortgage due to today’s overly stringent lending standards.”
“While there is still much room for improvement, the consistent upward trend in builder confidence over the past year is indicative of the gradual recovery that has been taking place in housing markets nationwide and that we expect to continue in 2013,” noted NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe.
Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for the past 25 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores from each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.
Two of the HMI’s three component indexes are now above the critical midpoint of 50. The component gauging current sales expectations rose two points to 51 in December, while the component gauging sales expectations in the next six months slipped one point, to 51. The component measuring traffic of prospective buyers increased one point, to 36.
Editor’s Note: The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index is strictly the product of NAHB Economics, and is not seen or influenced by any outside party prior to being released to the public. HMI tables can be found at www.nahb.org/hmi. More information on housing statistics is also available at http://www.housingeconomics.com.
“Builders across the country are reporting some of the best sales conditions they’ve seen in more than five years, with more serious buyers coming forward and a shrinking number of vacant and foreclosed properties on the market,” observed NAHB Chairman Barry Rutenberg, a home builder from Gainesville, Fla. “However, one thing that is still holding back potential home sales is the difficulty that many families are encountering in getting qualified for a mortgage due to today’s overly stringent lending standards.”
“While there is still much room for improvement, the consistent upward trend in builder confidence over the past year is indicative of the gradual recovery that has been taking place in housing markets nationwide and that we expect to continue in 2013,” noted NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe.
Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for the past 25 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores from each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.
Two of the HMI’s three component indexes are now above the critical midpoint of 50. The component gauging current sales expectations rose two points to 51 in December, while the component gauging sales expectations in the next six months slipped one point, to 51. The component measuring traffic of prospective buyers increased one point, to 36.
Editor’s Note: The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index is strictly the product of NAHB Economics, and is not seen or influenced by any outside party prior to being released to the public. HMI tables can be found at www.nahb.org/hmi. More information on housing statistics is also available at http://www.housingeconomics.com.
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