South Carolina second nationally for net in migration

Dividing the number of persons moving to a state by those moving to and moving from the state gives the percentage of in migration. Using this method, Oregon is the most popular state with 61 percent of movers moving there while just 39 percent moved away. Rounding out the top five are South Carolina at 60 percent, North Carolina at 58 percent, and Washington DC and South Dakota both at 57 percent. New Jersey was last at 36 percent.

Source:
Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.
GraphsandLaughs, LLC
www.econ70.com

Multifamily leads housing recovery

A large chunk of the credit for our improving economy belongs to multifamily construction. Since hitting a trough of 111,000 multifamily permits in October 2009, multifamily activity has quickly recovered. This past October there were 418,000 multifamily permits pulled, an amazing 73% of the permits pulled in March 2006, the single best month since the late 1980s. If single-family were doing that well, we'd be at 1.3 million SF permits.

Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.
GraphsandLaughs, LLC
www.econ70.com  

Spending on Home Improvements Continues to Exceed Spending on New Construction

In the third quarter of 2013 investment in home improvements was $178 billion, while construction spending on new single family and town home building was $172 billion.  Each were about one percent of GDP. Similarly, in the first three months of 2013 spending on home improvements was $161 billion, slightly above the $157 billion spent building new home building.

Normally new spending on new home building is double spending on home improvements. Worse, to date in 2013, new home building spending is flat.     

 

Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.

GraphsandLaughs, LLC

www.econ70.com  

Congress by the numbers

The most active Congress, as measured by the number of bills passed into law, excluding private bills, was the 84th (1955-1956) which passed 1,028 bills. Eisenhower (R) was President; Lyndon Johnson (D) was Senate Majority Leader and Sam Rayburn (D) Speaker of the House. The least active was the 112th (2011-2012) which passed 238 bills. The current 113th Congress is on a pace to pass just 70!

Source: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.
GraphsandLaughs, LLC
www.econ70.com

Be glad you don't live in Greece

While the US economy is not great, be grateful you don't live in Greece. Unemployment there is 27.4 percent, youth unemployment is a staggering 58 percent and car registrations are down 80 percent. This is because GDP is in its fifth straight year of decline and by the end of 2013, will be back where it was in 2006, a decline of roughly 26 percent! By comparison, peak-to-trough US GDP declined by only 5 percent.

Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.
GraphsandLaughs, LLC

Construction employment has not kept pace with construction growth

Part of the reason employment growth is so weak is that despite sizable increases in residential construction spending, increases in construction employment have been MIA. From April 2012 to April 2013, residential construction put-in-place increased from $249 billion to $295 billion, an 18% rise. However, during the same period, the number of residential building employees and residential specialty trade contractors rose from 2,048,100 to 2,131,800 or by just 4%!

Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.
GraphsandLaughs, LLC
elliot@graphsandlaughs.net

What sprawl?

The US has a total land area 2.3 billion acres. In '07, the major land uses were forestland at 671 million acres (30%), grassland pasture and rangeland at 614 million acres (27%), cropland at 408 million acres (18%), parks and wildlife areas at 313 million acres (14%), misc uses (tundra and swamps) at 197 million acres (9%), and urban land at 61 million acres or just 3%! Sprawl, a problem?

Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.
GraphsandLaughs, LLC

Eisenberg: on jobs and foreclosures

by Elliott Eisenberg, PhD.

Banks currently own 450,000 houses, 2 million are in foreclosure, and 1.7 million more have not had a mortgage payment made on them in 90 days. This adds up to 4.15 million houses. The problem is that the economy has lost 5.2 million jobs since the start of the recession in January '08. Absent those job losses, the foreclosure problem vanishes. That's why robust job growth is so critical.

Elliott Eisenberg on Monetary Supply

Elliott Eisenberg, PhD., a housing economist who also works for NAHB, is publishing a daily blog on economics: GraphsandLaughs.net.  Check out Elliott's latest post:

Despite what you think, monetary policy has not been expansionary, and that's the problem. While the Fed's assets grew from $0.8 trillion to $2.8 trillion between 10/08 and 7/11, it was matched, almost dollar for dollar, by a $1.6 trillion increase in commercial bank deposits at the Fed. The money supply cannot expand when banks keep their excess reserves at the Fed. It only grows when banks lend those monies to businesses and households.

Visit Elliott's blog, GraphsandLaughs.net, by clicking here. 

How houses are homes, even in a disaster area

By Dr. Elliott Eisenberg, Senior Economist, NAHB

Recently I was to give a talk about the economic impact of home building in Joplin, MO. However, a few hours before I landed a devastating tornado destroyed 2,000 buildings and heavily damaged one-third of the city including the hospital, high school and many neighborhoods. In all, over 120 persons were killed. After a harrowing flight from Chicago filled with turbulence, lightning and the darkest clouds this east coast economist has ever seen it was great to land. I was, however, so shaken from the flight and from what I saw I was unable to articulate a cogent thought and putting one foot in front of the other was about all I could do.

Interestingly, this was my second recent frightening run-in with Mother Nature. About 10 weeks ago I was on the Oregon coast having given a talk at an HBA there. At 5:30 the next morning I was woken by the hotel manager and informed that there was a tsunami warning and that I might wish to evacuate; needless to say, I did. Luckily that warning was unnecessary. In Japan, however, it was a very different story.

To me the most poignant part of natural disasters is hearing survivors talk gallantly about rebuilding their destroyed homes and neighborhoods. No one cries about a car, boat, iPhone or credenza that was destroyed; they are all easily replaced. Yet, people regularly weep when surveying the wreckage of their destroyed home. This is because homes are repositories of memory and because homes speak to the importance of place. And our place and our memories intimately revolve around our homes. Thus, the profound desire to rebuild even though moving away is so much easier.

Joplin has suffered immense physical and psychological damage. It is now our turn, the turn of the home builders, to help make these communities whole and give them back part of what was brutally taken from them. In my speeches as an economist I regularly point out the number of jobs created and the amount of tax revenue generated by home building. But, to be honest, that misses the bigger point. What rebuilding homes in Joplin and New Orleans and Memphis does is offer people and communities hope about the future, comfort that they are part of it, and validation of their lives.

The next time I give a speech I will make these points, I will share this story and I will be more proud to be part of this great industry than I have ever been.

Editor's Note: Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is an economist with the NAHB and looks forward to hearing from you. He has spoken to the HBA of Greenville twice in recent years and delivered good news about the impact of housing on our local economy. He can be reached at 202.266.8398 or by email at eeisenberg@nahb.org.

Dr. Eisenberg was set to speak on Monday to HBA members in Joplin, MO. He was intercepted by the Executive Director of the Springfield, MO, HBA before he finished his trip and arrived in the disaster zone. His is a story about how HBA members and staff come together to help one another.

The HBA office in Joplin is undamaged and will reopen May 24. However, two of 14 HBA board members in Joplin are homeless.

You can help by contributing to NAHB's Disaster Relief Fund.